Are we having a snow day tomorrow?
Is school going to be closed because of the snow?
What are the chances of no school tomorrow?
When snow is forecast the day is punctuated with the buzz of questions like these.
I love the assumption that, as head of school, I can somehow predict the future and control the weather.
While neither of those are true, I do usually make the decision of whether to close school or have a two-hour delayed opening.
Fortunately help is at hand.
A middle school student shared a link that he swears is highly reliable: Snow Day Calculator. (Thanks Elijah!)
I entered the zip and the requisite data. (This included a school policy rating as “harsh”.) And back came the result.
According to the Snow Day Calculator there is a 99% chance there will be no school tomorrow. (Just to check accuracy, I entered the zip for Miami Beach. Students there may be disappointed to learn that their chance of a snow day is “Limited”.) It says it only refreshes at midday…Hmm, maybe not so reliable,
So, when at the end of the day a few students dropped by to find out the chances of school being closed, I showed them the calculator result. Excitement ensued.
But the reality is we won’t know until later and probably not until tomorrow morning.
What happens is this: Facilities manager Steve Mallet and I both wake up
early, monitor the weather and the local school districts listings as their road scouts report in on road conditions. And because we have such a dispersed community that information can be very different. Red Hook and Rhinebeck may be closed, New Paltz and Highland delayed and no problem in Pawling or Garrison. The roads can be too icy in Millbrook and completely clear in Poughkeepsie.
We check in by phone, share what we know, and make the call. We always try to do this as early as possible once the information is clear. Occasionally circumstances are clear the night before and we activate accordingly. More usually it means around 5.30-6am.
The worst is when the weather is clearly on the move and the districts are a patchwork of decisions. Two-hour delay? Or not? Convert the delay to a closing? Or not?
Steve contacts the radio stations and I activate the chain that gets a message on the website, on the answering machine and out to all faculty and staff. Do we always get it right? No. But we do our best.
We always encourage families to make their own determination about whether it is safe to travel to school. This is especially true for the parents of our student drivers. Conditions vary so much that even when we declare school open the roads in any particular home location may be icy and dangerous.
So – do we have school tomorrow?
I have no idea. But it would be wise to check the website, listen to the radio or call in to the answering machine sometime after 5.30am tomorrow.
Midge Hazelbrow, the indomitable co-head of Wayward St. Etheldreda's Academy, took herself for a brisk…
Before the eruption, it was a typical senior leadership meeting at Wayward. Head of School,…
When I taught fourth and fifth grade at a school that didn't assign grades, the…
It was the Gert Loveday review of Rancid Pansies (it’s an anagram) that set me…
A post on LinkedIn caught my attention this week. It's had over 11,000 views so…
Women's rights campaigner Kellie-Jay Keen of Let Women Speak had a big announcement last week.…
View Comments
Did you know you can also check the probability of snow day using https://snowdaycalculator.info ?
Well, we know accuracy matters. check for yourself to see if there are tools out there that gives close to accurate results.
Um. Yes. I like that it was invented by a sixth grader.
Dear Josie,
This was a very interesting blog about the chance of snow. I love how you wrote that there was a 99% chance of snow. You had many details that were very interesting and I can’t wait for more blog posts.
Please visit our blog: http://shirleys6th.edublogs.org/
From,
Cory
Guess it developed enough! Thanks for this wise (in my humble opinion) call!!
Hi Ann: We have occasionally made the call the night before and given everyone a lie-in rather than an earlier than usual wake-up. Let's see how the storm develops.
I couldn't resist with all the talk of the impending storm Tues. into Wed. The calculator says we have an 84% chance of a snow day Wed., and that the percentage is subject to increase. I'm curious about the chances of a snow day being called Tues. night...?
Isn't it amazing the chain of events and amount of communication that Elijah set off with his snow prediction link...even the maker of the program commented....technology is a wonderful thing!!!
@ David - thanks for creating this tool! Kids were excited!
@ Josie - don't worry about waking us up. The anticipation of possible weather disruption triggers an internal alarm mechanism that has many of us up earlier than usual. It was a good call - the roads were icy and slick by 9:30 up here near the school. Now back to that calculator!
Hi David - Thanks so much for the clarification about how the calculator is updated. It's a very clever program you have created. Thank-you. PDS appreciates it!
Thanks Ann. We aim to please and sometimes succeed. Loved the story about the crossed arms, fierce determination to attend school no matter what. It was a shame that the skating and ski trips had to be canceled. Next week though...
Hi everyone! This is David Sukhin, maker of the snow day calculator mentioned above. Thanks for using the calculator. I'm glad it gave an accurate prediction. I also had 99% today and had the day off too. Just to clarify, new predictions go up two days in advance at 12pm but update throughout the day with the most current weather information so the prediction stays as accurate as possible. I will clarify that fact on the website. Thanks again for featuring the calculator in this article. If you have any questions feel free ask :)